Good Judgment Inc tested methods for structuring group discussions and crowdsourcing tools on 3,045 forecasts across 200 real-world questions, showing that disagreement fell by 25% and group accuracy improved by 25%
Published
Signal category
Research & Knowledge
Quote
“We tested these methods on 3,045 forecasts across 200 real-world questions. Disagreement between individuals fell by 25%, while group accuracy improved by 25%.”
— Good Judgment Inc team
Company
Good Judgment Inc
Actionable, early insight and better decisions start with the science of Superforecasting®.
- Industry
- IT Services and IT Consulting
- Location
- New York, US
- Company size
- 91 employees
Good Judgment Inc seeks to improve forecasting for better decision-making. The company is a commercial spinoff from the Good Judgment Project – the most successful participant in a research program sponsored by IARPA (the intelligence community's equivalent of DARPA) looking for means to improve crowd-sourced geopolitical and economic forecasts for policymakers. Good Judgment offers forecasts from its professional Superforecasters on both subscription and custom bases. We also bring the science of accountable forecasting to public and private sector clients through training workshops, online training programs, and internal forecasting "tournaments." The company's principals include: • Warren Hatch, CEO (hatch@goodjudgment.com); • David Wayrynen, co-founder and CTO (wayrynen@goodjudgment.com); and • Anna Zeng, CLO (zeng@goodjudgment.com). In addition, CEO Emeritus Terry L. Murray (murray@goodjudgment.com), Barbara A. Mellers (mellers@goodjudgment.com), and Philip E. Tetlock (tetlock@goodjudgment.com), are co-founders and advisors.
Founded 2014