PrecisionAlgorithms is a machine learning model for prediction markets that prices questions on Kalshi and Polymarket and publishes the difference.
Published
Signal category
Products & Services
Quote
“Precision Algorithms is a machine learning model for prediction markets. Kalshi and Polymarket price a question, our model prices the same question, and we publish the difference.”
— PrecisionAlgorithms team
Company
PrecisionAlgorithms
Machine learning meets prediction markets Independent signals for @kalshi + @polymarket
- Location
- Sheridan, US
- Company size
- 1 employees
Precision Algorithms is probability research for prediction markets. A venue prices an outcome. We estimate the same outcome separately and publish the signed distance between the two values in probability points. We call that the Model Gap. The exchange price is excluded from model scoring. It enters afterward, only for the comparison. We cover selected markets on Kalshi and Polymarket. Venue names identify what we cover, not a partnership. Our record is published, including the calls that missed. On 22,014 untouched test markets the model scored a 0.1938 Brier against a 0.2254 baseline. Offline holdout evidence, not realized returns. A Model Gap is a research signal, not expected return, certainty, or an instruction to trade. Informational research. Prediction markets involve risk.