PrecisionAlgorithms shares how models are built, verified, and learned running them in public.

Precision Algorithms is probability research for prediction markets. A venue prices an outcome. We estimate the same outcome separately and publish the signed distance between the two values in probability points. We call that the Model Gap. The exchange price is excluded from model scoring. It enters afterward, only for the comparison. We cover selected markets on Kalshi and Polymarket. Venue names identify what we cover, not a partnership. Our record is published, including the calls that missed. On 22,014 untouched test markets the model scored a 0.1938 Brier against a 0.2254 baseline. Offline holdout evidence, not realized returns. A Model Gap is a research signal, not expected return, certainty, or an instruction to trade. Informational research. Prediction markets involve risk.